Zeitliche Wiederkehr: es muss gezeigt werden, dass sich die Innovationen oder ihre Determinanten zyklisch verhalten. Sie beginnen zu innovieren, wenn sich die Wirtschaft im Gleichgewicht befindet. Mit Hilfe des Geldes werben sie Produktionsfaktoren von anderen Unternehmen ab und schaffen es somit, die Invention im Wirtschaftssystem durchzusetzen. In dieser lassen die Innovationen stetig nach. Freeman[ Bearbeiten Quelltext bearbeiten ] Bei Christopher Freeman spielen nicht einzelne Basisinnovationen die herausragende Rolle, sondern so genannte Techniksysteme. Erst dies kann der Wirtschaft zu einem starken Aufschwung verhelfen.
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Two Dutch economists, Jacob van Gelderen and Salomon de Wolff , had previously argued for the existence of to year cycles in and , respectively. Since the inception of the theory, various studies have expanded the range of possible cycles, finding longer or shorter cycles in the data. The Marxist scholar Ernest Mandel revived interest in long-wave theory with his essay predicting the end of the long boom after five years and in his Alfred Marshall lectures in More common today is the division into four periods with a turning point collapse between the first and second phases.
Writing in the s, Kondratiev proposed to apply the theory to the 19th century: —, with a turning point in Kondratiev supposed that in a new cycle had started. The long cycle supposedly affects all sectors of an economy. Kondratiev focused on prices and interest rates , seeing the ascendant phase as characterized by an increase in prices and low interest rates while the other phase consists of a decrease in prices and high interest rates.
Subsequent analysis concentrated on output. Explanations of the cycle[ edit ] Cause and effect[ edit ] Understanding the cause and effect of Kondratiev waves is a useful academic discussion and tool. Kondratiev Waves present both causes and effects of common recurring events in capitalistic economies throughout history. Although Kondratiev himself made little differentiation between cause and effect, obvious points emerge intuitively.
The causes documented by Kondratiev waves, primarily include inequity, opportunity and social freedoms; although very often, much more discussion is made of the notable effects of these causes as well. Opportunity created the simple inspiration and genius for the Mayflower Compact for one example.
Technological innovation theory[ edit ] According to the innovation theory, these waves arise from the bunching of basic innovations that launch technological revolutions that in turn create leading industrial or commercial sectors. The theory hypothesized the existence of very long-run macroeconomic and price cycles, originally estimated to last 50—54 years. In recent decades there has been considerable progress in historical economics and the history of technology, and numerous investigations of the relationship between technological innovation and economic cycles.
Perez places the phases on a logistic or S curve, with the following labels: the beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as maturity. Harry Dent has written extensively on demographics and economic cycles. Tylecote devoted a chapter to demographics and the long cycle. Land is a finite resource which is necessary for all production and they claim that because exclusive usage rights are traded around, this creates speculative bubbles which can be exacerbated by overzealous borrowing and lending.
As early as , a number of Georgists predicted that the next crash would come in Hence, the credit cycle is the cause of the economic cycle. Debt deflation was largely ignored in favor of the ideas of John Maynard Keynes in Keynesian economics , but it has enjoyed a resurgence of interest since the s, both in mainstream economics and in the heterodox school of post-Keynesian economics and has subsequently been developed by such post-Keynesian economists as Hyman Minsky  and Steve Keen.
There are several modern timing versions of the cycle although most are based on either of two causes: one on technology and the other on the credit cycle. Additionally, there are several versions of the technological cycles and they are best interpreted using diffusion curves of leading industries. For example, railways only started in the s, with steady growth for the next 45 years. It was after Bessemer steel was introduced that railroads had their highest growth rates.
However, this period is usually labeled the age of steel. Measured by value added, the leading industry in the U. The U. There was a commodity price cycle based on increasing consumption causing tight supplies and rising prices. That allowed new land to the west to be purchased and after four or five years to be cleared and be in production, driving down prices and causing a depression as in and A concise version of Kondratiev cycles can be found in the work of Robert Ayres in which he gives a historical overview of the relationships of the most significant technologies.
Leo A. Nefiodow shows that the fifth Kondratieff ended with the global economic crisis of — while the new, sixth Kondratieff started simultaneously.
Nefiodow, the carrier of this new long cycle will be health in a holistic sense—including its physical, psychological, mental, social, ecological and spiritual aspects; the basic innovations of the sixth Kondratieff are "psychosocial health" and "biotechnology".
Wave of the Financial-agricultural revolution — 2. Wave of the Industrial revolution — 3. Wave of the Technical revolution — 4. Wave of the Scientific-technical revolution — 5. Wave of the Information and telecommunications revolution — 6. His main stress is put on technological progress and new technologies as decisive factors of any long-time economic development. Each of these waves has its innovation phase which is described as a technological revolution and an application phase in which the number of revolutionary innovations falls and attention focuses on exploiting and extending existing innovations.
As soon as an innovation or a series of innovations becomes available, it becomes more efficient to invest in its adoption, extension and use than in creating new innovations. Each wave of technological innovations can be characterized by the area in which the most revolutionary changes took place "leading sectors". Every wave of innovations lasts approximately until the profits from the new innovation or sector fall to the level of other, older, more traditional sectors.
It is a situation when the new technology, which originally increased a capacity to utilize new sources from nature, reached its limits and it is not possible to overcome this limit without an application of another new technology. For the end of an application phase of any wave there are typical an economic crisis and economic stagnation. The financial crisis of — is a result of the coming end of the "wave of the Information and telecommunications technological revolution".
Some authors have started to predict what the sixth wave might be, such as James Bradfield Moody and Bianca Nogrady who forecast that it will be driven by resource efficiency and clean technology.
Criticism of long cycles[ edit ] Kondratiev waves associated with gains in IT and health with phase shift and overlap, Andreas J. Goldschmidt, Long wave theory is not accepted by many academic economists. However, is important for innovation-based, development and evolutionary economics. Yet, among economists who accept it there has been no formal universal agreement about the standards that should be used universally to place start and the end years for each wave.
Health economist and biostatistician Andreas J. Goldschmidt searched for patterns and proposed that there is a phase shift and overlap of the so-called Kondratiev cycles of IT and health shown in the figure. He argued that historical growth phases in combination with key technologies does not necessarily imply the existence of regular cycles in general. Goldschmidt is of the opinion that different fundamental innovations and their economic stimuli do not exclude each other as they mostly vary in length and their benefit is not applicable to all participants in a market.