LE CYGNE NOIR NASSIM TALEB PDF

Nous ne respectons pas suffisamment les introspectifs, les sceptiques, ceux qui doutent et suspendent leur jugement. Nous sommes responsables de ce qui fonctionne, pas de ce qui rate. La vigilance est cependant de mise, et le scepticisme doit nous guider. The American economy has leveraged itself heavily on the idea generation, which explains why losing manufacturing jobs can be coupled with a rising standard of living. Clearly the drawback of a world economy where the payoff goes to ideas is higher inequality among the idea generators together with a greater role for both opportunity and luck.

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Bagore Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it cytne a spectator sport. It the brain can only figure out sequence of events and the subsequent outcome. Que txleb nous apprendre les amants de Catherine ccygne Russie sur les probabilites?

The social obsession with the mantra of respecting the rules of compartmentalization — you learn A so you become A — is dead wrong and Taleb observed this in close detail. He convincingly reveals a sound foundation for a structure of thought that for me has been mostly a mist shrouded vision, perhaps even disconnected structures. Amazon Renewed Refurbished products with a warranty. Several hundred thousand students in business schools and social science departments from Singapore to Urbana-Champaign, as well as people in the business world, contin Terus terang, kalau hujah penulis diambil kira dan dipandang serius; oe akan meruntuhkan disiplin ilmu statistik dan kebarangkalian konvensional sedia ada.

Pourquoi ne devrait-on jamais lire un journal ni courir pour attraper un train? Enfim, um livro essencial, de um pensador original e com estilo bastante pessoal. The cases where he is right extreme events happen maybe — what?

After a few decades, most science fiction just seems silly, because they got everything wrong. He clearly wants this book to be considered scholarly as he has 19 pages of notes and a 28 page bibliography designed to demonstrate the depth of his own reading.

Write a customer review. In addition to his trader life, Taleb has also written, as a backup of the Incerto, more than 50 scholarly papers in statistical physics, statistics, philosophy, ethics, economics, international affairs, and quantitative finance, all around the notion of risk and probability. The Lebanese Civil War is well known for having lasted decades, but according to Taleb the consensus at the its earliest stages was that it would not last long.

Amazon Restaurants Food delivery from local restaurants. How Good Is It? A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: Nor Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker quantitative trader before becoming a flaneur and researcher in philosophical, mathematical and mostly practical problems with probability. His website describes him as a Commercial Ideas-Facilitator, and his contracts regularly run into six figures. Just a moment while we sign you in to your Goodreads account.

I think that in the face of living a simple life, some hazard, hunger of knowledge and a constant reminder that we are only human are the best antidotes against the daily rat-race, something he constantly repeats to his audience. Page 1 of 1 Start over Page 1 of 1. AmazonGlobal Ship Orders Internationally. Refresh and try again. Someone on my blog said that I ought to read this book, which for some reason I had on my shelves, but had not read.

Taleb writes clearly and entertainingly about some difficult and turgid subjects. His title Bed of Procrustes made the N. I pulled it down, and had myself a little brain treat. Like with Fooled by Randomness, Taleb takes many more pages than necessary to get his important points across.

One snarky comment, if I may. I disagree with his notion of all-stupid-economics, as there are some highly educated and not only in statistics economists who use the sociological aspect of the issues at hand and who see the problems ahead. His analysis of how we approach unpredictability involves touching on a range of discourses, psychology, mathematics, economics, literature, philosophy, aesthetics, history, physics Right at the onset in the prologue, the author converges what the mass thinks of life as a whole and how convenient it is to see life as the cumulative effect of a handful of significant shocks.

The world is full of decision makers who rely on experts, statistics and intricate models that are built on soft sand. All progress depends on the unreasonable man.

He hates the bell curve for massively …more Because of the magnitude of disaster possible when people are wrong and unprepared for being wrong. Most Related.

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